Craps Vig Chart
What is the 'Best' Progression for You? (Part Two)
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Last time I wrote about two betting progressions that very simple to use but still very powerful. This time I will go into more detail on these progressions.
Buy bets, apart from the vig, pay in exact proportion to the odds against winning. Without a margin between the odds and the payoff, the house needs the vig to gain an advantage or edge. Here's what happens on up-front vigs. If the wager loses, players forfeit the bet plus the vig. Of course, you should ask if you can only pay $2 vig for both bets. This way if the seven rolls you win $24 ($28 - $4) and if one of the hard numbers roll you break even ($28 - $28). Suppose a player wants to make a $20 Buy bet on the number 6. A 5% commission, which is also called the “vig”, the “vigorish” or the “juice”, will be $20 x 5% = $1. A player places $21 on the layout and tells the dealer that he wants to buy a 6. A dealer collects $1 vig and puts $20 in an appropriately numbered box on the layout.
The two progressions mentioned last time are the press-and-pull (or the pull-and-press variant) and the up-a-unit. The press-and-pull progression alternates between pressing the place bet when the number hits and pulling the profits when it hits. The up-a-unit progression adds one unit to the place number each time it hits. In any of these progressions, each number that you place works independently of other numbers. You only take the next step of the progression on the number that hits.
Craps Vig Chart
Let’s look at some detailed information for each of these progressions.
First we will look at the numbers for the six and eight with a betting unit size of $10, however, the actual bet on the six and eight must be a multiple of $6.
Unit Size | 10 | Up a unit | Pull and Press | Press and Pull | ||||||
Hit # | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | |
1 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 2 | |
2 | 24 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 28 | 30 | |
3 | 36 | 30 | 48 | 24 | 28 | 44 | 24 | 4 | 34 | |
4 | 48 | 44 | 92 | 24 | 4 | 48 | 48 | 56 | 90 | |
5 | 60 | 58 | 150 | 48 | 56 | 104 | 48 | 8 | 98 | |
6 | 72 | 72 | 222 | 48 | 8 | 112 | 96 | 112 | 210 | |
7 | 84 | 86 | 308 | 96 | 112 | 224 | 96 | 16 | 226 | |
8 | 96 | 100 | 408 | 96 | 16 | 240 | 192 | 224 | 450 | |
9 | 108 | 114 | 522 | 192 | 224 | 464 | 192 | 32 | 482 | |
10 | 120 | 128 | 650 | 192 | 32 | 496 | 384 | 448 | 930 | |
11 | 132 | 142 | 792 | 384 | 448 | 944 | 384 | 64 | 994 | |
12 | 144 | 156 | 948 | 384 | 64 | 1008 | 768 | 896 | 1890 | |
13 | 156 | 170 | 1118 | 768 | 896 | 1902 | 768 | 126 | 2018 |
The strategies are arranged from least aggressive to most aggressive. The columns upon which to focus are the 'Total' columns. Notice that for the first few hits the less aggressive strategies outperform the more aggressive strategies. As you rack up more hits, however, the more aggressive your strategy, the better you do.
Now let’s look at the results of these strategies being applied to the four and ten. Using the same $10 betting unit size and assuming you are playing in certain casinos in Tunica or Las Vegas that allow you to buy the four and ten for a $1 vig from $10 to $30, the results are as follows.
Unit Size | 10 | Up a unit | Pull and Press | Press and Pull | ||||||
Hit # | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | |
1 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 9 | |
2 | 20 | 29 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 28 | 20 | 39 | 48 | |
3 | 30 | 49 | 87 | 20 | 39 | 67 | 20 | 19 | 67 | |
4 | 40 | 68 | 155 | 20 | 19 | 86 | 40 | 78 | 145 | |
5 | 50 | 88 | 243 | 40 | 78 | 164 | 40 | 38 | 183 | |
6 | 60 | 107 | 350 | 40 | 38 | 202 | 80 | 156 | 339 | |
7 | 70 | 127 | 477 | 80 | 156 | 358 | 80 | 76 | 415 | |
8 | 80 | 146 | 623 | 80 | 76 | 434 | 160 | 312 | 727 | |
9 | 90 | 166 | 789 | 160 | 312 | 746 | 160 | 152 | 879 | |
10 | 100 | 185 | 974 | 160 | 152 | 898 | 320 | 624 | 1503 | |
11 | 110 | 205 | 1179 | 320 | 624 | 1522 | 320 | 304 | 1807 | |
12 | 120 | 224 | 1403 | 320 | 304 | 1826 | 640 | 1248 | 3055 | |
13 | 130 | 244 | 1647 | 640 | 1248 | 3074 | 640 | 608 | 3663 |
Notice in the total columns that the less aggressive strategies still perform better with fewer hits, and even with the reduced house edge of just over 1%, the number of hits before one strategy is favored over another does not change. It still takes eleven hits for the pull-and-press strategy to outperform up-a-unit and it still takes eight hits for press-and-pull to outperform up-a-unit.
Let’s see how the five and nine fare – again a $10 betting unit.
Unit Size | 10 | Up a unit | Pull and Press | Press and Pull | ||||||
>Hit # | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | |
1 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 4 | |
2 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 28 | 32 | |
3 | 30 | 32 | 54 | 20 | 28 | 46 | 20 | 8 | 40 | |
4 | 40 | 46 | 100 | 20 | 8 | 54 | 40 | 56 | 96 | |
5 | 50 | 60 | 160 | 40 | 56 | 110 | 40 | 16 | 112 | |
6 | 60 | 74 | 234 | 40 | 16 | 126 | 80 | 112 | 224 | |
7 | 70 | 88 | 322 | 80 | 112 | 238 | 80 | 32 | 256 | |
8 | 80 | 102 | 424 | 80 | 32 | 270 | 160 | 224 | 480 | |
9 | 90 | 116 | 540 | 160 | 224 | 494 | 160 | 64 | 544 | |
10 | 100 | 130 | 670 | 160 | 64 | 558 | 320 | 448 | 992 | |
11 | 110 | 144 | 814 | 320 | 448 | 1006 | 320 | 128 | 1120 | |
12 | 120 | 158 | 972 | 320 | 128 | 1134 | 640 | 896 | 2016 | |
13 | 130 | 172 | 1144 | 640 | 896 | 2030 | 640 | 256 | 2272 |
Even with a 4% house edge, it takes eleven hits for pull-and-press to outperform up-a-unit and eight hits for press-and-pull to outperform up-a-unit.
So what is the moral of this little tour of selected statistics? Simply this – sometimes the simplest can be the most powerful. Comparing the results of the simplest progression to the more common and slightly more complicated schemes proves that except for very uncommon hot streaks, you are able to put more of the casino’s money in your pocket (or give less of your money to the casinos). Ask yourself – how often do I hit one specific number more than eight times in a given roll? Unless you can answer that question with a reasonable amount, the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle seems to also apply to progression betting in craps.
Next time we will explore some more complex – and aggressive – progression strategies. Until then, remember: if you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague.
Stickman
Let’s define the streak down a little further. For right-way players, there are two types of streaks that get the money. First off is the random streak that fits perfectly into the math model of bankers craps. These streaks are part of the variability of the game. The results fall within what mathematicians refer to as standard deviation. The most common example used to explain this is the coin flip. If you were to flip a coin 100 times you would expect to see heads appear approximately 50 times and tails approximately 50 times. In reality the numbers might spill out at 49-51, 52-48, or even 55-45 in this small of a sample. Within the context of our 100 tosses you might see heads show up three, four, or five times in a row. You might even find yourself checking the coin to make sure it does not have TWO heads. Due to random variability, these kinds of streaks are fairly common. Yet over a large sampling the final results will come very close to a 50/50 split between heads and tails. How close? In craps the distribution of numbers rolled is close enough to the model that the casino knows they have an advantage over every bet on the layout. Sure, a few players will capitalize on these streaks, exercise good money management skills and walk with a win. But others will continue to stand at the table and bet long after the streak is over. The Law of Large Numbers kicks in and eventually the table gets back everything it dumped to the smart players – plus.
The second type of streak is what we’ll call a “man-made” streak. These streaks may develop at the hands of a skilled shooter who has spent endless hours perfecting his toss, or at the hands of a natural shooter who falls into a rhythm of picking the dice up and delivering them the same way over and over. Often both types of shooters will have hands that develop along the same line as the random roller who has a good run – beginning with a few repeating numbers, then stretching for ten, twenty, thirty minutes or more. Let’s break down the shooter types and look at them individually.
First is the dice influencer, or precision shooter. While the types of toss utilized by precision shooters may vary, they are generally easy to spot. Why? Because they go through exactly the same routine before every toss. They typically exhibit a great deal of concentration as they carefully pre-arrange and grip the dice, then toss them in such a fashion that they rotate on axis, land softly and bounce off the back wall with very little roll back. Not only does the fact that he sets the dice and tosses them the same way over and over give him away – his betting strategy tells you what numbers he is expecting to throw. If, for example, a player bets the Four and Ten working on the Come Out, then promptly tosses either the Four or Ten, there is a good chance that these are his signature numbers – points he throws at a higher than random rate. Armed with this piece of knowledge you have a much better idea of how to bet this shooter’s hand.
Right behind the dice influencer is the shooter some people refer to as the natural shooter, or rhythm roller. Like the dice influencer, these shooters often have a routine they go through before tossing the dice. They may simply take the dice as presented by the stickman, pick them up and toss them to the same spot on the table over and over. Or they may “school” the dice, picking them up and dropping them several times before they see numbers they like – then picking them up and tossing them town the table. Some stack the dice and toss them. Some shake the dice – then throw them into the hook. Whatever their particular routine – it is the consistency you are looking for. Consistency and repeating numbers.
There is, of course, another type of shooter whose hand you can profit from at the tables. This is the player who consistently sevens out without making a pass. He may be influencing the dice – consciously or subconsciously – in favor of the Don’ts. Or luck may simply be frowning on him. In any case, one can profit from his hands by betting them appropriately. You do that by following the shooter’s personal trend until he proves you wrong – at which time you either lay off betting on his hands or follow the trend.
Craps Vig Charter Communications
Whenever you make a point to observe the skill level of the shooters and the general trend of the table itself you are doing what veteran gamblers call “charting.” Some players chart with complicated tracking sheets. Others use a simple spiral notebook. A few track with the chips in their racks. Still others simply make a point to remember who tossed the good hands and what their high repetition numbers were – and who tossed the bad ones.
I chart tables because it helps reinforce my discipline. Every time I go to the casino I see players rush up to the first open spot at the table, throw down their first bet and promptly lose it. They continue to toss in bet after bet without knowing who the shooter is or how long he held the dice last time out. They don’t care how poorly or how well the game is going. They simply want to get in on the action. If they are very lucky, they catch the table when it is trending in the way they bet. However, as often as not they end up losing.